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 fair value for Strasburg

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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: fair value for Strasburg   Mon Apr 12, 2010 2:36 pm

which closer should I be able to acquire for him? Any opinions?
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Joel
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Tue Apr 13, 2010 11:41 am

Probably not to much of one at this point.......now right after he comes up, that is a different story. Best value will be right after they announce he is coming up, but before he pitches.......then, if he has a great game he will remain high.......or, what I would expect to happen, he has a solid game, but does not have the run production behind him to pick up many wins and his value begins to fall.
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Tue Apr 13, 2010 12:12 pm

Interesting Joel. I wonder why others see value in him then? By that I mean he was taken in the 13 th rd of the Elite draft rt after T Hoffman and in the 14 th rd of the other AAA draft soon after R Soriano and rt before Jenks. And everyone knew he was going to be down till probably June 4 th. And everyday it just gets closer to that date his value should rise accordingly unless he gets hurt or really blows up? Or where is my reasoning wrong?
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Wed Apr 14, 2010 4:10 am

I'd think you could get a fill in or part time guy for Strasburg...possibly Feliz or Frasor...especially from a team lacking pitching depth. I think the best way to sell him would be to package him with a #2/setup guy that would handcuff a closer on the team your trying to get a closer from. That match might not be likely though...

JT
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Wed Apr 14, 2010 9:49 am

I'd rather keep him if that's the best you think I can do.
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Joel
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Thu Apr 15, 2010 10:43 am

I think Rookies have the most value before the season. This is mainly because we all love the game and bright new stars are exciting. On the other hand, once the leagues start going we are all looking at counting stats, and to trade a currently usefull player for the promise of stats to come is tough to pull the trigger on. I love Strasburg......but at this moment grabbing Zito off the scrap pile has significantly more value.

Once they announce he is coming up....well...then the promise of a potential ace resurfaces an his value will shoot way up.

As for what he truelly will net this year, I think a solid era/whip with a great K ratio. Wins....well...not so much. Not only will Wash fail to produce run support, but the defense behind him outside of 3b and CF will be pretty bad. Dunn is one of the worst in the game, Willingham is iffy at best and Desmond will mount up the errors if he keeps the job. So his ERA/WHIP will be slightly inflated from what it should be (Dunn has the range of a one legged Elephant on Acid).

I also get caught up in the rookie/ young player hype in the draft (I reached for both Heyward and Butler). I also saw great things from Bailey this year....and he is now available on waivers...LOL.
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Thu Apr 15, 2010 11:33 am

Good write up Joel. I traded another to get my closer, not much of one lol, Matt Lindstrom traded Gutierrez who I love but I picked up J Guillen recently so it was easier to let him go.So I will keep Strasburg and I think I will be happy I did. I will let you try out Zito he isn't for me but my pitchers always have a hi K/innings ratio.
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Joel
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Thu Apr 15, 2010 3:18 pm

I am not a Zito fan, but he has talent in the right ballpark and is hot.....has to be better then my brilliant prognostication that Homer Bailey was going to set the world on fire.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:38 pm

yeah but if I am going to gamble on someone it's the guy that strikes out Albert Pujols in his first 2 at bats and has 9 Ks in 5 innings like a Bud Black did I was actually not going to be too shocked if he got Pujols in his 3 rd at bat had him at 3 2 count but Albert came through.
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:39 pm

teamdalrymple wrote:
yeah but if I am going to gamble on someone it's the guy that strikes out Albert Pujols in his first 2 at bats and has 9 Ks in 5 innings like a Bud Black did I was actually not going to be too shocked if he got Pujols in his 3 rd at bat had him at 3 2 count but Albert came through.
oops Bud Norris.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Sun Apr 18, 2010 9:21 pm

Guys I have picked up for their starts this year, and their stat lines:
Scott Feldman: 7 IP / 4 K / 1.29 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 1 Win

Luke Hochevar: 5 IP / 5 K / 7.20 ERA / 1.80 WHIP / 1 Win

Jeff Niemann: 7 IP / 3 K / 3.86 ERA / 1.29 WHIP

Gio Gonzalez: 4.2 IP / 5 K / 3.86 ERA / 2.14 WHIP

Ben Sheets: 6 IP / 4 K / 0.00 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 1 Win

Ian Kennedy: 5 IP / 7 K / 0.00 ERA / 1.00 WHIP

Randy Wells: 6 IP / 5 K / 1.50 ERA / 1.33 WHIP

Clayton RIchard 6.1 IP / 5 K / 1.42 ERA / 1.26 WHIP

Mike Pelfrey: 7 IP / 6 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.86 WHIP / 1 Win

Doug Fister: 8 IP / 4 K / 2.13 ERA / 1.20 WHIP

Justin Masterson: 4 IP / 4 K / 15.75 ERA / 3.00 WHIP

Brett Meyers: 6 IP / 6 K / 3.00 ERA / 2.00 WHIP / 1 Win

Gio Gonzalez: 7 IP / 3 K / 0.00 ERA / 1.00 WHIP / 1 Win

Tom Gorzelanny: 7 IP / 3 K / 2.57 ERA / 1.00 WHIP

Ian Kenneddy: 8 IP / 6 K / 4.50 ERA / 0.88 WHIP / 1 Win

So, from these players I have gotten a cumulative 7 wins, 70 K, 2.78 ERA (29 ER), and 1.32 WHIP (124 BB + H) in 94 innings.


Last edited by Dutchmen on Fri Apr 30, 2010 2:59 pm; edited 5 times in total
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Sun Apr 18, 2010 9:31 pm

Well I have tried the churn game and even though there you will have some success usually it won't be that good have you also included the bad starts? But i have won leagues doing it but in this format where there is an innings limit i have had more success having 6 quality starters. My innings are valuable and the 120 140 innings I get out of Strasburg I expect to be hi quality.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Sun Apr 18, 2010 9:36 pm

Oh I hope you kept Nieman because I dont expect you will see him on the waiver wire again.
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Joel
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:08 am

Nope, Mr. Neiman is nestled comfortably on my squad now Laughing
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:02 am

yeah the pitchers worth picking up for a good start seem to disappear quickly. So then your options aren't as good so churn until you find a quality arm is my idea if I need another but I keep em if they are good. I expect Jaime Garcia to be on my team all year.
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theforsch55
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:55 am

You guys are doing something right to get the spot start stuff to work out. I picked up Pavano and sat him against the Yanks before starting him against the Royals. FAIL. The worst part is I had a feeling the Royals would light him up, but my inner retard said, "nah, KC sucks and Pavano has pitched well so far." FAIL.
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teamdalrymple
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Mon Apr 19, 2010 12:03 pm

yeah I think the way this league sets up is to stream the middle relievers and p/u position players on Mon/thurs with them. But that is just my observation.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:44 pm

Yeah, I included the bad starts. The ones from Hochevar and Gonzalez aren't exactly top notch. Yeah, some of the guys who I picked up will be owned, but most of them will be dropped again when the put up a really bad start, which happens from time to time. I did this all last year in AA Frontier...as some pitchers find their ways onto rosters permanently, other pitchers always turn up. I'm normally not a fan of streaming pitchers, but the small benches in these leagues make some sort of roster spot juggling necessary, be it with offensive players, RP's or SP's.

Add Randy Wells' start to my line: 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5 K's

and Clayton Richard's line: 6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5 K's

I think I'm just going to keep a cumulative stat line of how my streamed SP's do this season. It will definitely be interesting to see.
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Joel
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Tue Apr 20, 2010 3:29 pm

Feel free to ask me for pitching advice any time you need it.

Last year I targeted two pitchers late that I thought were going to have bounce back years: Chin-Ming Wang and Fausto Carmona. Didnt pan out quite how I expected.

This year my picks to click were: Javier Vazquez and Homer Bailey. Bailey is on the waiver wire if you want him.

Moral of my story is to stick with offense.......I friggin hate pitchers...LOL
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:47 pm

Joel wrote:
Feel free to ask me for pitching advice any time you need it.

Last year I targeted two pitchers late that I thought were going to have bounce back years: Chin-Ming Wang and Fausto Carmona. Didnt pan out quite how I expected.

This year my picks to click were: Javier Vazquez and Homer Bailey. Bailey is on the waiver wire if you want him.

Moral of my story is to stick with offense.......I friggin hate pitchers...LOL

Usually my plan...apparently that wasn't autodraft's plan, spending pick #18 on Roy Halladay, #42 on CC Sabathia, and picking up Cliff Lee as well.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Thu May 20, 2010 1:40 pm

Well I am glad I took Strasburg I can't wait for June 4 th he is amazing.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Fri May 21, 2010 2:38 am

Haha I declined this trade at the start of the season! No longer have an active SS and have since dropped Buehrle, then Gregg took the closer role. Nice.

Doom traded Brandon Webb*, Ari SP to Metspos
Doom traded Mark Buehrle, CWS SP to Metspos
METS traded Stephen Drew, Ari SS to Doomtroopers
METS traded Kevin Gregg, Tor RP to Doomtroopers
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Mon May 24, 2010 1:31 pm

I guess I couldn't wait for June 4 th. I just traded Strasburg, Morales, and Kinsler for Tex, Lind and Pence. But I do expect Strasburg to dominate when he arrives.
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PostSubject: Re: fair value for Strasburg   Sat May 29, 2010 6:29 pm

At this point I believe it would be difficult to trade a closer for Strasburg. Those that own him have to believe his value right now is in the top 30-40 players. Maybe two closers for him would be more appropriate.
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