OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS

Subject: OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS Fri Mar 28, 2008 3:34 am

For a complete breakdown, click the draft rankings link on the Elite Fantasy Baseball home page.

TEAM
H3S (94)
WorkingClassBoys (93)
MSINGER (92)
The Czar (86)
Stompbox (83)
Underdogger (82)
#4 Yawkey Way (81)
Champion (75)
Misremember (73)
Gould (64)
Boston Sniper (61)
Titans (52)

Rookie Joined : 25 Feb 2008 Posts : 16

Clear seperation there for the top 3 from the rest of the pack.

TSN folks are killin it in the preseason rankongs!

Subject: Re: OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:23 am

Prospect Joined : 24 Feb 2008 Posts : 4

It probably hurts that I have no 3B... Very Happy

Rookie Joined : 23 Feb 2008 Posts : 21

Since you asked the thing I am surprised about is that people actually put any stock to these rankings. I bet a few of these top teams dont finish at the top. Never underestimate the competition especially this early.

Rookie Joined : 22 Feb 2008 Posts : 33

Wow, so if I get 3 more HR's, 8 more RBI's and one more SB, then I clearly win.

Not such a separation if you look at the numbers. I'm only slated for 42 holds. Really? Really? With Broxton and Fuentes? Broxton alone had 32 last season. Fuentes was a closer, but I'm thinking 30 is a safe bet in Colorado in the 8th inning role. They will have a lot of leads this year. I would actually love it if Broxton only gets 2-3 holds and then closes when Saito's 80 year old body breaks down. There are other holds guys out there. I do need another closer.

I think that ERA is way inflated too at least compared to where you have others ranked. I think I will be below most of the league with that staff led by Haren and Webb. I love my staff. Brett Myers will win 20 this year. Write it down. See, I can make ridiculous projections too. Actually, a 3.70 ERA with 1400 innings in will win the ERA in this thing. A lot of the ERA's were low because guys aren't carrying enough starters to amass 1400 innings and will have to fill in and that will bring a staff filled with setup guys up in ERA damn fast. Wait and see. Teams with 4-5 quality starters will be much better off over teams with 1-2 quality starters and a strong pen right now. I feel that i have both a strong pen and strong starters. So, your system totally screws me for carrying more quality starters over a bunch of holds guys right now, but in reality, that won't be the case when my starters all carry below avg. ERA's compared to MLB standards during the season and eat up those 1400 innings. Lots of holds guys will emerge to go with the 3 that I already have. You have 8 guys ahead of me in ERA and I can guarantee you that won't happen. It just won't. It's a flaw with your system, not my staff.

I will print these up and put them next to my spring training stats. I keep them next to my toilet and sometimes when I run out of TP, they come in handy.

In all seriousness, thanks for the hard work. You spent way too much time and energy on this though.

Rookie Joined : 22 Feb 2008 Posts : 33

So, I'm looking for the info on where you came up with these numbers. I only found one little blurb about fangraphs and some other site. Did you average the two projections together for each site? How did you determine who our starters would be? Did you put any bias into it such as choosing one projection over another? What happens if you come across a projection that makes little sense such as Josh Hamilton only getting 400 AB's while JR Towles (a rookie at a much more demanding position has 368)? Hamilton isn't Ken Griffey yet damnit. He will get 550 this year barring catastrophe. The problem with Bill James' projections is that they don't factor in growth a lot of times and are overly dependent on AAA stats. If a guy is in his second year, there is a tendency to post the same projections for him as he did his rookie year. By the way, his Towles projections are overly optimistic because of the minor league stats. I love Towles, but if he is going to hit .297, 14 HR's 69 Runs, 74 RBI's, A. he better get more than 368 AB's and B. I just don't see it from that 8th hole on an NL club. That production for 368 AB's in INSANE. It makes sense if he gets 550, which he won't, but I'm thinking more in the 10 HR-45-45 range for a rookie in the 8-hole with the incumbant catcher still on the club and getting quite a few starts.

What did you do for Fukudome (or the Japanese Randy Winn as I like to call him, only 3-times as much on draft day), who isn't in the fangraphs system yet? I would love to see some projections on him knowing that the Japanese HR ratio to MLB is about 3:1. The Chone projection has him at .280-14-72-75 or something like that. Exaclty what I am thinking. I've seen other projections that are insane like .300-25-100-100-20. Not happening.

I'm just curious where these numbers came from. I would love to see a projections breakdown for each team by player, so I know which ones are close and which ones won't happen. It sounds like you had to do it to put these numbers together, so can you post it if you have it?

I'm not trying to bash your ranking system. I know how much work it must have taken and I want to thank you for that. I just want to see how it was done and what numbers were used.

Subject: Re: OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS Sat Mar 29, 2008 4:19 am

The rankings are mostly for fun and discussion/bragging rights so I wouldn't read too much into them. The projections are not my numbers either, they are based on the projections given by Fantasy Sports Central which in my opinion are quite accurate. They have projections for every MLB player I've come across on any roster, including Fukudome. The pitching is VERY hard to project and to make it simple I used the 5 best SP and 5 best RP from each team. Some teams didnt have 5 SP or RP so it ended up 6/4 or 7/3.

Like you pointed out, there is very little separating the teams in most categories. A little change here and there and some teams would move up or down a few spots. From my perspective, if youre team is middle of the pack or better in these projections then you have nothing to worry about. Heck, the teams projected last dont have much to worry about as long as they are willing to make some moves.

Subject: Re: OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS Sat Mar 29, 2008 4:49 am

From what I understand, they use the average of five different projections (Rotoworld, ESPN, Roto Times, Yahoo and MLB.com). Here is a link to your teams projections:

The Czar Projections

If you want a little more info on how the projections were made you can check all of the FSC projections through this link:

http://www.fantasysportscentral.com/baseball/managerrank.asp?w=5

Rookie Joined : 22 Feb 2008 Posts : 33

Thanks, I know it is for fun. I commend you for taking the time.

I think my axe is more toward projections in general. I have just never been a big believer or fan in them, but I guess I better get used to it. I will probably be asked to do them at some point. I usually spend more time studying stadium factors and grading based on talent then numbers projections.

I was just curious how they were arrived at and I wanted to bring up the flaws that I already saw. In a standard 12-team league with smaller rosters and a 1200 inning limit, a 3.70 ERA puts you in the top 3, so I fully expect it to play very well with a 1400 inning limit and deeper rosters.

Thanks for getting back to me.

Subject: Re: OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS Sat Mar 29, 2008 6:38 pm

I believe it's actually 1500 innings for SP and RP combined.

Rookie Joined : 22 Feb 2008 Posts : 33

Haha, you may want to go back and recalculate my pitching numbers. Just kidding.

Whatever site you used was so off. I always liked my projections better.

3.70 was like if everything went wrong.

My current pitching stats.

323 IP, 22 W's, 14 saves, 16 holds, 260 K's, 2.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Me likey so far.

Oh, and I added Max Scherzer about 3 weeks ago.

Subject: Re: OFFICIAL ELITE LEAGUE DRAFT RANKINGS Wed Jun 18, 2008 6:05 am

The preseason rankings are looking pretty inaccurate so far...as I expected. I think the biggest surprise so far has to be H3S in 7th place...but it's far from over.